Saturday, July 25, 2009

EMBOURGEOISEMENT

Word for the day... EMBOURGEOISEMENT

An interesting article from Greg Sheridan today with some very interesting takes on Indonesia:

"A successful Indonesia will pose its own problems for us (AUSTRALIA), which most Australians cannot conceive of now. Some forecasts put Indonesia among the world's six biggest economies by 2050. At the moment Indonesia's per capita gross domestic product, measured in real dollars, is $US2030 ($2490). Using the more popular, though inherently fraudulent, purchasing power parity measure, it is $US4071...

In a nation of 240 million people, that's an awful lot of dollars. While Australia was understandably obsessing about the terrorist threat in Indonesia, the nation was quietly passing from a low to a middle-income nation………………

The one weak spot in Indonesia's economic story has been foreign direct investment. About $US2 billion in FDI went into Indonesia last year. This is a piddling amount. If SBY could liberalise investment rules, create greater legal certainty for foreign investors, reform specific sectors such as mining, improve infrastructure and maintain his overall sound macro-economic management, he could unleash a great deal of foreign investment. This in turn could lift Indonesia into truly Chinese and Indian levels of sustained high growth....

If he (SBY) reinvigorates economic growth there will be a big process of embourgeoisement across large parts of Indonesia. I'm tempted for a moment to say forget China or the Middle East: in terms of Australia's interests, this will be the most important dynamic at play anywhere in the world....

If anyone a dozen years ago had imagined this was the Indonesia we would have today, he would have been suspected of hallucinating on happy pills. The terrorists want to destroy Indonesian success. So far, thank God, they're not succeeding."

From the Stump:....Of course, Greg is a bit more optimistic than the Stump but then again he is probably several degrees smarter. The funny thing is once Indonesia moves into the middle nation business Australia and Australians are going to have to learn to come to grips with the dynamics that drive Indonesian Society and the Stump who has been around Indonesia for years still has about as much grasp on that as we do on the inner workings of NASA Space Shuttle…it's all shims and mirrors to us. In fact there is nothing more amusing than watching old expats explaining how they understand the workings of Indonesia.

Conversely, Indonesia and Indonesians are going to need to make some real hard decisions on the world of real politic if they want to be taken seriously as a middle power in the region.

Interesting times indeed and what kind of word is…..... embourgeoisement (He made that up..didn't he?)

6 comments:

Rob Baiton said...

He made it up or he is several degrees smarter :D

How about young expats explaining the inner workings of the Indonesian way (not that I am young anymore).

Maybe I should have stayed as that big expat job with expat conditions is just around the corner. But, by 2050 I will be 80 years old or worm food.

Bugger!

Although, maybe young Will (and the other offspring of bules and their pembantus :D) can capitalize on this "embourgoisement" of Indonesian society.

oigal said...

"How about young expats explaining the inner workings of the Indonesian way (not that I am young anymore)."

Laugh nothing personal...I am as bad as anyone, point I was trying to make is that just when you think you understand the dynamics..you me ..us all have a "black swan" moment.

2050..We will be resting by the pool watching nubiles play..(of course our heads will be in a bottle with tubes and sh*t but such is progress.

Still think "embourgoisment" (try spelling that without looking) sounds more like a blood disorder or some kind of french food.

Harry Nizam H. said...

Oigal ...
Your blog is interesting, I will link it. Hope you'll do the same.

oigal said...

Thanks Harry..I will endeavour to do so..although I am the world's laziest blogger.

Rob Baiton said...

Stump...

I am not sure that I would have called these ramblings interesting.

:D

oigal said...

Ok..Like a trout taking a lure..What term other than interesting would you use Rob?